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The direst possible consequences of the global heating for the UK have been mapped by experts, encompassing a scorching 4C jump in average temperatures to a 6.5-foot surge in ocean levels. A separate possibility predicts a drop of 6C in temperature following the failure of crucial Atlantic Ocean currents, which would massively disrupt food production and energy needs.

Plausible Extremes, Not Forecasts

These impacts, some of which are connected to irreversible climate shifts, are viewed as improbable but possible. The team explained that these projections plugged a hole in risk assessment that had left the UK not ready for catastrophic possibilities.

"The worst-case scenarios we have outlined should not be seen as certainties, but they are plausible," commented the lead researcher who oversaw the research. "The nation has been making preparations in the absence of the tools to test against worst-case scenarios. We've now provided policymakers what they need to get ready for environmental results they pray never occur, but can’t afford to ignore."

A Suite of Extreme Weather Projections

A second set of severe models maps the projected severity of extreme weather between now and the end of the century. These suggest that thermometer readings could soar in certain periods by up to 6C above the norm, while rainfall could be 300% of typical amounts.

The probability of the catastrophic events happening cannot be precisely determined due to unknown factors about what action will be taken to combat global heating and how the climate system will react. This approach was likened to defence planning or resilience checks for financial systems.

Key Outcome Highlights

• Four-Degree Warming: Global temperatures rising well above 4C by 2100 could happen if international cooperation breaks down or if powerful amplifying effects like the Amazon rainforest becoming a net carbon source release its enormous store of carbon. This would lead to intense and enduring heat domes and water shortages affecting the UK in summer.
• Ocean Circulation Failure: A critical sea current, the AMOC, is weakening and showing signs of collapse due to climate change. A full shutdown commencing by 2030 would lead to a six-degree temperature drop in the UK. "Crop production would be severely challenged and water resources would be completely altered," said the professor.
• Accelerated Coastal Flooding: A rise of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could happen if ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica melt abruptly, submerging seaside communities. Differing from the other scenarios, this risk is already recognized by infrastructure experts.
• Pollution Paradox: Temperatures could also be driven up by about 0.75C if pollution from industry is rapidly cleaned up. This counterintuitive effect occurs because aerosol particles from industrial activity block solar radiation from reaching the ground.

Planning for the Extreme

These dire projections could be applied to guide the development of major projects, including new towns, nuclear power stations and urban drainage systems. Understanding these future hazards could also hasten the drive to reduce carbon pollution.

The analysis formulated the severe projections using a blend of observed and historical experience, digital projections and scientific theory. The possibilities exclude broader worldwide issues including the global food shortages and resource wars.

The project was commissioned as part of a official adaptation planning initiative. Earlier reports have stated that not enough attention was being given to catastrophic yet improbable risks.

An independent advisory body has said that the UK must "become resilient to moderate heating" and assess the dangers for four degrees. Past policy documents have been criticised as being "inadequate" by environmental groups.

A government spokesperson said: "The climate emergency is at the center of the country's focus, both building resilience and becoming a clean energy superpower. It is vital that the UK is resilient for the consequences."