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Just 48 hours before the New York race for mayor, Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – not just who would win citywide, and precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in the city, devoted over a decade in left-leaning activism and has become a kind of well-known figure recently for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He released his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani would win while missing the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. He possesses a talent for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the split between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he forecasted (accurately) that Mamdani would triumph by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, certain media outlets and financial newspapers outrank the mainstream paper” in readership and most voters favored Cuomo, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Trends and Surprises

How was your election night?

It was necessary since they were adding approximately 200K votes into the tally frequently! I was actually somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani led the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but came two big batches of ballots added after that and his lead dropped from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, there was a world in which election day turned out kind of poorly for Mamdani, where Cuomo was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. But Mamdani added 500,000 supporters to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he won. He went out and massively expanded his support from the first round.

Expanding Support

Where did Mamdani get those extra votes from?

He built the coalition that the left long aimed for: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the earlier election. Additionally he boosted his base of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and immigrant groups. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He built the alliance that the left long aimed for: diverse, young, tenants and people squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It is a real thing, limited to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in ethnic enclaves that supported the former president last year went for the progressive this year. But I wouldn’t say he was gaining white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Impact

One of the big stories of the election was the record participation. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than I had expected. I thought we might exceed two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, energized, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that was enough to secure victory.

You predicted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Right now it appears he’s favored to get over 50%. He has just over 50% but remain probably 200,000 votes uncounted as of Wednesday morning. Thus it’s not certain, but I think it’s likely, and I wish he achieves it because afterwards no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His vote plummeted.

He didn’t win any district in any borough. Not even Tottenville in the borough, which is like an 88% Trump area. That really surprised me. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and plus gained many conservatives on Staten Island with a high participation. I think there was a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it before the former president tweeted his support for the candidate, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome if the winning alliance failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – did backing for Mamdani overwhelming in those parts of the boroughs?

In my view existed a little dilution of the progressive zone in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, instance, the Greek landlords and residents supported Cuomo. Thus there existed some opposition. However no, mostly the leftist base is a key factor why Mamdani prevailed – he scored between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

Prior to the vote there was coverage on if Mamdani was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

Exist areas with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he did well. But in the affluent districts such as the Manhattan area, his position on Israel definitely mattered in those places. Likewise in the moderate communities like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned the independent. And also, there are newcomers from the former Soviet Union in the borough, they were pretty staunchly supportive. Therefore it’s unclear if existed crazy narrative-busters on this one, but Mamdani did hold left-leaning areas and even parts of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city means politically? Will commie corridor serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that key figures from progressives come from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be additional examples – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

However I believe that each urban center in America could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the epicenters of progressive influence in America – because youth reside there, tenancy is common and they represent locales where people are crushed by the disparities exist.